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Pallen i sikte på gjeldstoppen

By Morten Josefsen, on February 9th, 2010

Jeg ser enkelte begynner å bekymre seg for at boligprisene, spesielt i Oslo, begynner å bli så høye at nærmest ingen har råd til å kjøpe leiligheter lenger. Til det er det bare en ting å si, lånte penger er også penger. Vi kan ikke gi oss nå, nå som pallplassen for verdens mest gjeldstyngede nasjon er så nær. Vi har passert boblelandet USA med god margin og har nå bare Nederland, Irland og Danmark foran oss. #


Kilde: Global Household Leverage, House Prices, and Consumption, By Reuven Glick, and Kevin J. Lansing #

Jeg foreslår følgende firepunktsplan for å starte jakten på pallen: #

  • Formuesskatten på boliger avskaffes helt
  • Gjedrem forbys å sette opp renta frem til vi er på pallen
  • Alle nye lån får avdragsfrihet minst fem år fremover – eksisterende avdragsfrie perioder forlenges
  • Alle lån gjøres om til rammelån
God jakt!
#

February 9th, 2010 | Tags: , | Category: Moro, Politikk, Økonomi

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  • Arthur Alcock

    Arthur Alcock – It may be that Google Translator is misleading, or that I don't understand Norwegian tax at all, but just wondering how abolishing a capital gains tax on housing will alleviate the pressure on house prices? In Australia, it is the rather generous tax breaks given to residential property investors that has contributed to affordability falling so … See Moresignificantly (plus a subsidy for first home buyers/restrictive release of land for development/a shaky stock market/Chinese money flooding the market).February 10 at 9:06am · Morten Josefsen – I guess my sarcasm got lost in translation. Norway have huge taxbreaks for housing. Which I think contributes a lot to what I think is a bubble now. Also, as you can see, Norway is on top on household leverage, aided by taxbreaks for interest payments and crisislow rates. So I am really suggesting ending all these taxbreaks and raising rates. February 10 at 9:19amArthur Alcock – Ah yes, I can see now your four point plan is entirely stimulatory. The translation seems to suggest (sarcastically) that Norway should push for a gold medal for leverage – is this right? Perhaps re-introduce sub-prime/low doc home loans to kick it along even further.I guess the question would be, how much would the rest of the economy hurt if rates were raised right now? Over here, the Reserve Bank held the cash rate steady at its last meeting to the surprise of 99% of the market. Despite the hot run in equities, there's still a lot of fragility over here, especially in Industrials and to an extent Consumer as well. So, we continue to have rates well below cyclical averages. But the effect on the housing market has been crazy.One big difference I noticed though in relation to Norway – you mentioned the impending inability to buy “apartments”. One of the problems here is that urban Australians still assume that they will all be able to buy a big house, with a big yard. The only way is up!February 10 at 12:58pm · Interestingly, you mention a bubble may be forming. But I guess a bubble can only really be a bubble if it has the potential to burst – is this the case in Norway? I have no idea about housing demand/immigration stats/space market fundamentals in Norway.

  • Arthur Alcock

    Arthur Alcock – It may be that Google Translator is misleading, or that I don't understand Norwegian tax at all, but just wondering how abolishing a capital gains tax on housing will alleviate the pressure on house prices?

    In Australia, it is the rather generous tax breaks given to residential property investors that has contributed to affordability falling so … See Moresignificantly (plus a subsidy for first home buyers/restrictive release of land for development/a shaky stock market/Chinese money flooding the market).
    February 10 at 9:06am ·

    Morten Josefsen – I guess my sarcasm got lost in translation. Norway have huge taxbreaks for housing. Which I think contributes a lot to what I think is a bubble now. Also, as you can see, Norway is on top on household leverage, aided by taxbreaks for interest payments and crisislow rates. So I am really suggesting ending all these taxbreaks and raising rates.
    February 10 at 9:19am

    Arthur Alcock – Ah yes, I can see now your four point plan is entirely stimulatory. The translation seems to suggest (sarcastically) that Norway should push for a gold medal for leverage – is this right? Perhaps re-introduce sub-prime/low doc home loans to kick it along even further.

    I guess the question would be, how much would the rest of the economy hurt if rates were raised right now? Over here, the Reserve Bank held the cash rate steady at its last meeting to the surprise of 99% of the market. Despite the hot run in equities, there's still a lot of fragility over here, especially in Industrials and to an extent Consumer as well. So, we continue to have rates well below cyclical averages. But the effect on the housing market has been crazy.

    One big difference I noticed though in relation to Norway – you mentioned the impending inability to buy “apartments”. One of the problems here is that urban Australians still assume that they will all be able to buy a big house, with a big yard. The only way is up!
    February 10 at 12:58pm ·

    Interestingly, you mention a bubble may be forming. But I guess a bubble can only really be a bubble if it has the potential to burst – is this the case in Norway? I have no idea about housing demand/immigration stats/space market fundamentals in Norway.